Pattern Signal Tracker

The live, ongoing record of each day's Job 15 and Job 25 signals, scored against the realized 5-day SPY return once it is known.

A Pattern Signal Tracker is a live, ongoing ledger that records daily technical signals generated by specific quantitative models—specifically the Job 15 and Job 25 studies—and evaluates their predictive accuracy against actual market performance. By logging each day's signal direction and strength alongside the realized five-day forward return of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), the tracker provides an out-of-sample performance record. This allows investors to see if the models are maintaining their historical efficacy in real-time trading environments. To ensure data integrity, the tracker employs a strict coverage guard. A daily signal is only recorded and scored if the underlying model has fresh, valid predictions for at least 80% of its defined stock universe. This safeguard prevents partial or corrupted data refreshes from generating false, extreme readings. Once this threshold is met, the tracker logs the signal and, exactly five trading sessions later, appends the actual SPY price change to calculate the trade's win or loss status. Retail investors use the tracker to monitor the live, ongoing win rate and average return of active signals, comparing these metrics against historical backtests. A common pitfall is ignoring the coverage guard; if market data is delayed and coverage drops below 80%, no signal is recorded for that day, which can sometimes be misinterpreted as a lack of market opportunity rather than a data-quality protection measure. Consistent tracking helps investors identify when a model's real-world performance begins to drift from its backtested expectations.

On a Monday, the Job 15 study generates a bullish signal. The platform checks the coverage guard: 42 out of 49 curated large-cap stocks have fresh predictions, which is 42 / 49 = 85.7% coverage. Since this is above the 80% threshold, the signal is recorded. Five trading sessions later, on the following Monday, SPY has risen from $500 to $510. The tracker records a realized 5-day forward return of (510 - 500) / 500 = +2.0% and logs the signal as a 'win'.